Ask an Australian how much they spent at their favourite quick service restaurant last month and they'll give you an answer. It just won't be the right one. Fonto research shows that when asked to recall their own spending with a brand, Australians overstate it by 2.0 times what they actually spent. In market research, this is known as the say-do gap, and it has significant implications for anyone trying to understand what is really happening in the quick service restaurant (QSR) category.
We close that gap for the first time by linking real, everyday banking transaction data across every brand in the category to survey responses from the same consumers, rather than relying on memory alone.
Within Quick Service Restaurants, Fonto's Moments in QSR program captures real daily transactions from everyday Australians and surveys them directly about their purchases, tracking more than 50,000 purchase occasions over the past 12 months. Three findings from that data stand out:
Spend is concentrated in a small group of heavy buyers
The top 20% of QSR buyers account for almost 63% of all category spending. These heavy buyers purchase 2.8 times more frequently and spend 2.6 times more than medium-frequency buyers, and around 75% of QSR customers say they never consider an alternative restaurant brand. For operators, that means the commercial upside of retaining and rewarding a relatively small, highly loyal customer base outweighs the upside of chasing occasional buyers. Read the full analysis.
Breakfast is becoming a genuine growth battleground
Breakfast incidence across the 22 brands Fonto tracks has grown from under 5% to over 8% of occasions in the past 12 months. Guzman Y Gomez's breakfast menu grew roughly 20% in 2025 and now represents 7% of its total sales, and KFC has announced its own move into the daypart. The customer profile defies the assumption that breakfast is a young, on-the-go occasion: the 50-plus age group accounts for over 60% of breakfast share, particularly in Queensland and South Australia, and 80% of breakfast occasions include a food item, with craveability now mattering more to acquisition than speed or price.
The category is expanding faster than consumption
Australia is on track for more than 350 new QSR locations in the next 12 months and 1,500 over the next five years, yet consumption at a category level is not growing at the same rate. Market penetration sits at 92% of Australians aged 18 to 64, with an average of 15 to 16 purchases per person in the March 2026 quarter. Challenger brands (including Guzman Y Gomez, Zeus Street Greek and Yo-Chi) gained 4.8 million customers between 2023 and 2025 while traditional major players lost 3.3 million collectively over the same period, and 43% of customers say they will switch brands via a delivery app if their preferred option isn't available.
Why this matters for QSR businesses
Taken together, this data points to a category that is growing in outlets but not proportionally in consumption, where loyalty is concentrated among a small group of high-value customers, and where dayparts once considered settled, like breakfast, are shifting fast. Restaurants, suppliers, distributors, logistics companies and investment banks working in or around QSR can use this kind of measurement, grounded in what customers actually did rather than what they recall doing, to make more informed decisions about growth and risk.
Meet Fonto at the QSR Media Conference & Awards 2026
Fonto is proud to sponsor the QSR Media Conference & Awards 2026 on Monday, 12 October at the Sheraton Grand Sydney Hyde Park.
We'll be at Booth 9, right outside the main hall, for the full day. Drop by to talk through the data behind Moments in QSR and what it could show about your brand or category.
We're also running a workshop on how to use consumer insights and data to make strategic decisions, sharing practical scenarios and real-world data with attendees.
Prizes will be awarded for the best team submissions. Seats are limited, so register early with QSR Media.
Fonto's CEO and founder, Ben Dixon, will also present the Best Customer Experience Award at the QSR Media Awards on the evening of 12 October.
If you work with restaurants, suppliers, distributors, logistics or investment in the QSR category and want to see what accurate, transaction-based measurement can show about your customers, make sure you connect with the team!
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