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May 2026
This article is a summary of Fonto's recent presentation at the Australian Restaurant & Foodservice Show 2026. Many thanks to the organisers and to all attendees.
The QSR industry is expanding aggressively. Based on announcement by companies all across Australia, more than 350 new restaurant and retail locations will open in Australia over the next 12 months, with 1,500 more planned over the next five years.
The problem? Consumption at a category level is not growing with it.
Fonto data from the March Quarter 2026 shows that market penetration, frequency of purchase and average basket sizes in QSR are in minimal decline or holding stable. Meanwhile, inflation is outpacing that growth. In practical terms, 92% of Australians aged 18 to 64 made at least one purchase from that category during the March quarter, making an average of 15 to 16 purchases during the period.
A stable category with so many new entrants can mean only one thing - while challenger brands such as Yo-Chi, Guzman Y Gomez, Zeus Street Greek, and others gained 4.8 million customers between 2023 and 2025, this came directly at the expense of the major traditional players, who shed 3.3 million collectively over the same period.
Convenience remains the number one driver of restaurant choice, which means QSR brands are no longer competing only with each other. Consumers have more choices to obtain convenient, fast food than ever before, as delivery apps, grocery offerings in the meals & snacks space, and the rise of food within the Petrol & Convenience sector have all significantly expanded in 2025 and 2026.
Delivery apps have also made brand loyalty fragile: 43% of QSR customers will simply order a different brand from the same app if their preferred option is unavailable. Grocery is compounding the pressure, with 28% of delivery app orders now including groceries and one in three of those orders being for a meal or snack.
Meanwhile, 65% of direct-to-restaurant QSR orders are digital or drive-through, additionally providing the average customer with more choices and ways to order food.
How to thrive with research when the market is saturated and isn't growing
Fonto have been developing a methodology that aids marketers and QSR operators to prioritise their efforts in winning and keeping customers in current market conditions. Our new occasions based segmentation
Demographic segmentation tells you who a customer is, not why they chose you today. Attitudinal segmentation captures stated preferences but often fails to predict behaviour. Neither accounts for the fact that the same consumer behaves differently depending on the moment.
Fonto models QSR purchasing across occasions defined by group size, group composition, and functional and emotional needs. Over the last 12 months, we've captured 50,000 QSR purchases and combined the consumer spending and customer experience for each individual order to better understand the behaviours that specific groups have in common.
Of all QSR orders we reviewed for the last 12 months, 56% of them were for solo, one person dining occasions and 44% were group occasions, each with distinct choice drivers.
Six core occasion types emerged from the analysis:
1. The Routine Set-Up: solo, habitual breakfast or on-the-go meal
2. The Favourite Craving: a comfort-led, solo weekday indulgence
3. The Health Pit Stop: a quality-led, loyalty-driven occasion for yourself
4. The Family Feed: Convenience-first, drive-through ease, for a family of 3 or more
5. Just the Two of Us: Relaxed weekend occasions with a partner and no kids
6. The Get-Together: weekend catch-ups with groups built around value and compromise
Recent data shows that The Favourite Craving segment, which comprises more than 26% of all purchase occasions, is growing as customers move from routine, habitual purposes to solo, craving-led missions. Importantly, for more than 75% of all purchase occasions for this segment, the buyer never considered more than the one restaurant brand they purchased from.
The implications for operators in the QSR space is to ensure that your operating platform and menu choices reflect the needs and cravings of a quickly changing customer. Understanding the relevant occasions for your brand can help you to remain top of mind when consumers make purchase decisions at speed.
To learn more about Fonto's Occasion Based Segmentation in QSR and how it can help you find, keep and grow customers, reach out to the team at insights@fonto.com.au
Ben Dixon is CEO and Founder of Fonto.
